We’d all like to be in the best performing areas all the time, but that is just not possible. Ride, Sally Ride, Aboard Your Rocket Ship ... Sally was preceded in space by two Soviet women, Valentina Tereshkova in 1963 and Svetlana Savitskaya in 1982. “We’re callin’ everyone to ride along And be free once more. You can compare the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Max DD to the Model’s Max DD. Irrespective of its obligations towards the Issuer, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties including but not limited to investors and/or ﬁnancial intermediaries of the ﬁnancial instrument. Click here for additional information about the indicator. Please Also Note: Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Period is 1992 to present. Ride, captain ride Upon your mystery ship, On your way to a world That others might have missed. Please know that neither I nor CMG are compensated in any form. The CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program is in a buy signal. The process looks at a smoothed total volume of declining issues versus a smoothed total volume of advancing issues using a broad market equity index. CMG is an SEC registered investment advisor principally located in King of Prussia, PA. Stephen B. Blumenthal is CMG’s founder and CEO. Here is the same chart over the last 1 year vs. the last 9 years. 13/34–Week EMA Trend Chart: Bullish Cyclical Trend for Stocks. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. 4. Don’t fight the Fed or the Tape: Gain/Annum for the S&P 500 Index (data from December 1, 1995 to present). Investor Sentiment: Investor sentiment is an indicator designed to highlight short-term swings in investor psychology. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, have not been independently verified, and do not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client. Derivatives and options strategies are not suitable for every investor, may involve a high degree of risk, and may be appropriate investments only for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. Ride Sally Ride Lyrics: Yeah, again / Sally was a girl that lived in Memphis / Was down on all the latest dances / I found the groove and Sally start to move / And all the guys taking chances and What Is All The Braille Pokemon emerald And Ruby? Thank you for your interest in this weekly post. Risk premiums vary a great deal over time in response to new market information or changes in the economic environment or even changes in investor sentiment. The Index is up 7.87% (gross) and 5.61% (net of 225 bps hypothetical maximum annual fee) over the last three years vs. up 4.52% for the Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Index (no fees) over the same period. Most of the really bad stuff tends to happen when the majority of stocks are in decline; therefore, the model moves to 100% cash if the Index line is below 50 and the trend is down. The Index is up 6.35% (gross) and 4.09% (net of 225 bps hypothetical maximum annual fee) over the last three years vs. -0.27% for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index over the same period. If the trend is lower than it was 42 days ago, the signal is a sell signal. Ride, captain ride. This next chart box details the drawdown (“Max DD %”) history and a few other statistics: For example, the largest drawdown ($100,000 declines 10% to $90,000 over the period of time measured, your drawdown is 10%). Periods of extreme optimism may suggest a time to add to hedges or trim exposure. 2. The information an d opinions contained in this document have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Click here to see “How I think about the 13/34-Week Exponential Moving Average.”, 3. As much as I’d like to think I do, I don’t know for sure which or how and when any of the above risks present and the degree to which they might play out. By The Blues Image – here is the song on YouTube (Click to play… Hope you find it fun…). Who sang the song ride captain ride upon your mystery ship? All Rights Reserved. Following is the updated portfolio summary: The short-term trend is bullish… see trend charts in the gold section below. ♦, Stephen B. Blumenthal The Zweig Bond Model signal remains in a sell signal – the trend for fixed income remains negative (signaling higher interest rates). I … Source: StockCharts.com; CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. You’ll notice that the 13-week EMA is just about ready to cross above the slower 34-week EMA. Philadelphia – King of Prussia, PA As a side, Ned Davis authored one of my favorite books, Being Right or Making Money. Who is the longest reigning WWE Champion of all time? More buyers than sellers or more sellers than buyers. Visit http://www.theoptionsguide.com/the-collar-strategy.aspx for more information. A corresponding description of the other comparative indices, are available from CMG upon request. How can I get in touch with Denzel Washington's mother lenox? Upon your mystery ship, Source: NDR Noted are comparisons to the S&P 500 Index (Total Return) in terms of GPA% (gross percent per annum), Sharpe ratio and max drawdown. For example, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. “But no one heard them callin’, Think of it as a systematic way to de-risk (raise cash) or re-risk (invest in large cap stocks). Ride, captain ride ‘Cause they were too busy watchin’ Neither publication of the Index by Solactive AG nor the licensing of the Index or Index trade mark for the purpose of use in connection with the ﬁnancial instrument constitutes a recommendation by Solactive AG to invest capital in said ﬁnancial instrument nor does it in any way represent an assurance or opinion of Solactive AG with regard to any investment in this ﬁnancial instrument. Daily Trading Sentiment Composite: Extreme Pessimism (S/T Bullish for Equities). Talk with your advisor. If the level of the Momentum Index line is lower than it was 42 days ago, then the index process “steps out” or “reduces market exposure” from 100% to 80% to 40% to 0% market exposure depending on the overall level of the CMG NDR U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index line. CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. 10 Valley Stream Pkwy, Suite 202 Malvern, PA 19355, Correlation, Diversification and Investment Success, http://www.theoptionsguide.com/the-collar-strategy.aspx, http://www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures/advs. Talk with your financial advisor for specific recommendations. CMG portfolios may be more or less volatile than the reflective indices and/or models.In the event that there has been a change in an individual’s investment objective or financial situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with his/her investment professionals. Returns, shown at the bottom section of the chart, are hypothetical. Note (in the chart below – upper right-hand corner) that the 13-week EMA (blue line) has crossed above the 34-week EMA trend (red line) late first quarter 2016 (a trend buy signal). Ride captain ride. a bearish signal for high quality fixed income bond funds and ETF exposure. Trend following strategies, in general, seek upside potential via an investment process that offers downside protection. And we’re passionate about educating advisors and investors about tactical investing. Same conclusion. Such strategies work in all major asset classes — stocks, bonds, currency and commodities. Best buying opportunities occur at “Extreme Pessimism” readings below 57. The Cyclical Trend for Stocks is bullish by this measure. The CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program takes exposure in HY ETFs/funds when the trend is favorable (prices trending higher) and trades to Treasury Bills (cash) when the trend is unfavorable (prices trending lower). The Indexes’ returns represented do not reﬂect the actual trading of any client account. (Instrumental) Seventy-three men sailed up From the San Francisco Bay, Got off their ship And here's what they had to say. A copy of CMG’s current written disclosure statement discussing advisory services and fees is available upon request or via CMG’s internet web site at http://www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures/advs. Next, if the index line is above 70 (an environment where most stocks/sectors are doing well… broad-based positive sector participation), then the signal is always a buy signal (i.e., remain 100% invested). Hire an experienced advisor to help you. Investors react to the changes gradually and this creates trends. You can sign up for weekly updates to Advisor Central here. NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure. For information purposes only. Diversification means that not all investment risks perform at the same time. Certain portions of the content may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, opinions and/or recommendations of CMG (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) as of a specific prior date. Current indicator score highlighted in yellow: The current daily sentiment reading is 41.11. The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes. The weight of evidence for the equity market remains bullish. Notable this week: Investor Sentiment has moved to Extreme Pessimism – such readings historically have been short-term bullish for equities. Trade Signals started after a colleague asked me if I could share my thoughts (Trade Signals) with him. Managed Futures — The Morningstar Managed Futures Index is down 0.89% YTD, down 0.64% over the last three months, down 1.77% over the last month and down 4.41% over the last 12 months. If you’re looking for the CMG white paper, Understanding Tactical Investment Strategies, you can find that here. Click here for “The History Behind Trade Signals.”. The Index is up 5.54% (gross) and 3.29% (net of 225 bps hypothetical maximum annual fee) over the last 12 months vs. up 11.02% for the Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Index (no fees) over the same period. What year did Halloween fall on a Saturday? Green arrows indicate buy signals, red arrows sell signals. Facsimile: 610-989-9092, CMG Advisor Central – Educational Pieces and White Papers. The material on this site can not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with prior written permission of Multiply. CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. The objective is to identify trading extremes that may be used for trading or hedging purposes. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. From the San Francisco Bay, Got off their ship. Ride captain ride upon your mystery ship, On your way to a world that others might have missed. Upon your mystery ship, Be amazed at the friends. We can manage risk not only by the collections of ETFs and funds selected but also how we combine them together. I find that reviewing various sentiment, trend and other historically valuable rules-based indicators each week helps me to stay balanced and disciplined in allocating to the various risk sets that are included within a broadly diversified total portfolio solution. For informational purposes only… Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Conclusion: Markets are stronger when there are more buyers than sellers. What food was Thomas Jefferson the first president to eat? Current indicator score highlighted in yellow (bottom right section): Chart 1: 13-week vs. 34-week exponential moving average: Sell Signal (Bearish). If the CMG NDR U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index line is between 60 and 70 and the trend is lower than it was 42 days ago, then the process steps from 100% invested to 80% invested. Current reading highlighted in chart below. The performance results shown include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For information and discussion purposes only. number 4 in 1970. It combines a number of individual indicators in order to represent the psychology of a broad array of investors. Click on the logo below. What is the timing order of an 1985 Plymouth horizon? If the CMG NDR U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index line is between 50 and 60 and the trend is lower than it was 42 days ago, then the process steps from 80% invested to 40% invested.
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